How Long Will My Retirement Savings Last? Six Levers That Change The Answer

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There is no single number of years. How long retirement savings last depends on how much you pull out each year, how long you live, what your investments do, what inflation does to your dollars, what other income you have, and what taxes and health costs take off the top. This is written for adults at or near retirement who want to understand those moving parts before they make a call. The most useful first step is to gather what you actually have — account balances, an estimate of your Social Security benefit, and a rough sense of yearly spending — before reading further. The question is less “how long will it last?” and more “which of these levers can I actually move, and by how much?”

Contents

The levers that determine how long savings last

Six things, mostly, decide the answer. Get a feel for them and the rest of this page reads as a tour rather than a list.

  • Withdrawal rate — the share of the portfolio you spend in a year.
  • Time horizon — how many years the money has to cover.
  • Investment returns — what the portfolio earns, which nobody controls.
  • Inflation — what rising prices do to the buying power of each dollar.
  • Other income — Social Security and any pension, which reduce how much the portfolio has to carry.
  • Taxes and health costs — what comes off the top before money reaches your spending.

None of these works alone. A lower withdrawal rate buys margin against a long life and a bad run of returns. A larger Social Security benefit means the portfolio does less of the lifting. The rest of this article takes them one at a time, and each connects back to the same question: which levers are yours to move?

Withdrawal rates and the math behind them

Your withdrawal rate is the single lever you control most directly, and it drives how many years a portfolio can fund. A withdrawal rate is the percentage of your savings you take out in a year. Take more, and the money drains faster. Take less, and it stretches.

The most-cited starting point comes from research published by the Financial Planning Association, which found that a first-year withdrawal of 4 percent, followed by inflation-adjusted withdrawals in later years, should be safe based on historical data. More recent work from Morningstar estimates a base-case safe starting withdrawal rate of 3.9 percent for 2026, assuming a 30-year retirement horizon, a portfolio with 30 to 50 percent equities, a 90 percent probability of funds remaining at the end, and excluding Social Security or other outside income. These findings describe what held up across historical conditions or modeled assumptions; they are not a promise about any individual portfolio, and they do not guarantee that money will last a set number of years.

A plain illustration helps. A $1,000,000 portfolio at a 4 percent first-year rate produces $40,000 in that first year. That is arithmetic, not a forecast — actual results turn on what markets do, when they do it, and how your own spending shifts. Two retirees with the same balance and the same rate can end up in very different places depending on the order of good and bad return years.

The reason the rate matters so much is that it is the one input here you set yourself. You cannot dial up returns or talk inflation down, but you can decide how much to draw.

How long will you need the money to last?

Plan for longer than you might expect, because the planning horizon is a floor, not a ceiling. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, life expectancy at age 65 for the total population was 19.7 years in 2024, up 0.2 year from 2023. That is an average across a whole population — about half of 65-year-olds will live longer than the average, some considerably so. This is a statistical association across a population; it does not predict how long any one person will live, which depends on health, family history, and factors no one can know in advance.

The risk worth naming is longevity risk: building a plan around an average lifespan and then living well past it. A plan that runs out at the average leaves the second half of a long life unfunded. Treating the average as the start of the planning window, rather than the end of it, is the more durable approach — and it loops straight back to the withdrawal rate, because a longer horizon is exactly what a lower draw is meant to protect.

Social Security timing and the pressure it takes off

When you claim Social Security changes your monthly benefit, and a larger benefit means your savings carry less of the load. For people born in 1960 or later, full retirement age is 67, per the Social Security Administration; claiming at 62 reduces the benefit by 30 percent (SSA). Wait past full retirement age and benefits increase for each month you delay, though that increase stops at age 70 (SSA). For someone born in 1960, claiming at 67 pays 100 percent of the benefit; at 70 it pays 124 percent (SSA).

Benefits are also adjusted for inflation. The SSA announced benefits will increase 2.8 percent in 2026, with nearly 71 million people seeing that cost-of-living adjustment beginning in January 2026 (SSA).

The trade-off is real and runs both directions: claim early and you collect smaller checks over more years; delay and you collect larger checks over fewer. Which side of that fits depends on health, other income, and whether you need the money sooner — factors a person has to weigh for their own situation, ideally with a qualified advisor. The reason it belongs in a conversation about savings longevity is simple: every dollar Social Security covers is a dollar the portfolio does not have to.

Required minimum distributions and your timeline

At a certain age, the law requires you to start withdrawing from most tax-deferred retirement accounts, which can force you to take out more than you planned. The IRS states that for 2023 the age at which account owners must start taking required minimum distributions rose from 72 to 73. Under the law passed as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 (SECURE 2.0), the required minimum distribution age increases from 72 to 75 in two steps over 10 years. The Internal Revenue Bulletin 2024-33 specifies that for an individual who attains age 74 after December 31, 2032, the applicable age is 75.

Roth IRAs work differently on the back end: the IRS notes that if you satisfy the requirements, qualified distributions are tax-free. That tax treatment is the relevant point for a savings-longevity discussion, because the character of a withdrawal — taxable or not — affects how much spending each dollar actually buys.

Required withdrawals matter to your timeline because they can pull money out on a schedule that is not yours, and into taxable income whether or not you need the cash that year. These rules are set by federal law and have changed recently; the current ages and calculation methods are worth verifying with the IRS or a qualified tax professional rather than assumed.

Taxes, inflation, and health costs

Three forces quietly shorten a savings runway: taxes on what you withdraw, inflation eating buying power, and health care costs.

On taxes, a 2025 summary from Thomson Reuters reports that recent legislation makes the earlier tax rate reductions and bracket changes permanent. What you owe on a withdrawal depends on the account type and your own tax picture, so this is context, not tax advice — a tax professional can speak to a specific situation.

On inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for all items rose 2.7 percent from December 2024 to December 2025. Even modest inflation compounds: a fixed income buys a little less each year, which is why inflation-adjusted withdrawals and inflation-adjusted Social Security both matter.

On health care, one illustrative figure: Fidelity Investments estimated that a 65-year-old retiring in 2025 can expect to spend an average of $172,500 on health care and medical expenses across retirement, and that figure does not include long-term care (Fidelity). That is a single average estimate, not a personal projection — actual costs vary widely by health, location, and coverage. The reason all three sit together is that they act on the same lever from the other side: they raise the real amount you need to withdraw, which is the input that decides how long the money lasts.

Still saving? The 2026 contribution limits

If you are still working, how much you put in now is a direct lever on the runway later. The IRS announced that the annual contribution limit for employees who participate in 401(k) plans increases to $24,500 for 2026, up from $23,500 for 2025, and that the limit on annual IRA contributions increases to $7,500 from $7,000.

These limits are set by the IRS and may be adjusted in future years, so the current figures are worth confirming at irs.gov before you contribute. More saved is more to draw on later — though how much, and into what kind of account, is a decision that depends on your own circumstances.

When doing nothing new is the right answer

Sometimes the strongest move is no move. If a plan already accounts for a long horizon, a conservative withdrawal rate, and Social Security timing, adding new products or chasing a higher return can introduce risk and cost without making the money last longer. A steady, modest withdrawal from an existing, well-understood portfolio may serve better than a reshuffle made out of anxiety about the question. There is no urgency built into reviewing the levers — and recognizing that you may already be positioned reasonably well is itself a legitimate outcome of working through them. The point of understanding the levers is not to pull all of them; it is to know which, if any, actually need pulling.

What research can and cannot tell you

The figures here come from population-level research and official data: historical withdrawal studies, modeled withdrawal rates, life-expectancy averages, and cost estimates. These describe what is true across a group or under a set of assumptions. They do not describe any single household. A 4 percent or 3.9 percent starting withdrawal rate is drawn from historical and modeled conditions and does not guarantee a portfolio will last a given number of years. A 19.7-year life expectancy at 65 is an average, not a personal forecast. A $172,500 health-cost estimate is one average, not your bill. Use these as reference points to think with, not as determinations about your own situation — that is what a qualified professional, looking at your actual numbers, is for.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 4% rule in retirement?

It refers to research from the Financial Planning Association finding that a first-year withdrawal of 4 percent, followed by inflation-adjusted withdrawals in later years, should be safe based on historical data. More recent Morningstar work estimates a base-case safe starting withdrawal rate of 3.9 percent for 2026, assuming a 30-year retirement horizon, a portfolio with 30 to 50 percent equities, a 90 percent probability of funds remaining at the end, and excluding Social Security or other outside income. Both are starting points from research, not guarantees that money will last any set number of years.

At what age do required minimum distributions begin?

For 2023, the IRS raised the starting age from 72 to 73. Under the law passed in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 (SECURE 2.0), the age rises from 72 to 75 in two steps over 10 years, and for someone who attains age 74 after December 31, 2032, the applicable age is 75. Because these rules have changed recently, verify current ages with the IRS.

How does delaying Social Security affect my savings?

A larger benefit means your portfolio carries less of your spending. For someone born in 1960, claiming at full retirement age of 67 pays 100 percent; waiting to 70 pays 124 percent, after which the increase stops. Claiming at 62 reduces the benefit by 30 percent. Which choice fits depends on health, other income, and personal circumstances.

How does inflation affect retirement savings?

Inflation reduces what each dollar buys over time, so a fixed income stretches less each year. The Consumer Price Index for all items rose 2.7 percent from December 2024 to December 2025. Social Security benefits are adjusted for this — the SSA announced a 2.8 percent increase for 2026.

How long does the average person live after retiring at 65?

In 2024, life expectancy at age 65 for the total population was 19.7 years, up 0.2 year from 2023. That is a population average — roughly half of 65-year-olds live longer — so it works better as a planning floor than as a personal prediction.

Key terms

  • Withdrawal rate — the percentage of retirement savings taken out in a year.
  • Time horizon — the number of years savings must cover.
  • Longevity risk — the risk of outliving your savings by living longer than a plan assumed.
  • Full retirement age — the age at which a person receives 100 percent of their Social Security benefit; 67 for those born in 1960 or later.
  • Delayed retirement credits — the increase to a Social Security benefit for claiming after full retirement age, which stops at age 70.
  • Required minimum distribution (RMD) — the amount the law requires you to withdraw from most tax-deferred accounts starting at a set age.
  • Cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) — the inflation adjustment applied to Social Security benefits.

References